Les profits pandémiques (Tamiflu, Gilead, Roche)

Historique Tamiflu

Laboratoire GILEAD Sciences et négociations Tamiflu avec le laboratoire Roche 

Accroissement de la valeur Tamiflu

Historique Tamiflu
Naissance : 1994
Créateur : Laboratoire bio-pharmaceutique Gilead Sciences
Lieu : Foster City dans l’Etat de la Californie, Etats-Unis
Indication : Grippe saisonnière
Adopté en 1996 : Laboratoire suisse Roche 
2001 : Ce médicament générait peu de ventes, il fut néanmoins lancé sur le marché européen en 2001 pour les grippes saisonnières. L’industrie pharmaceutique songait à le retirer du marché.
2002-2003 : Grippe aviaire et SRAS
Tamiflu date de péremption : 5 ans

2009 : Grippe A/H1N1 (ex Mexicaine, ex porcine)

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Laboratoire GILEAD Sciences et négociations Tamiflu avec le laboratoire Roche 
Fondateur : Michael L. Riodan en 1987
Lieu : Foster City dans l’état de la Californie, aux Etats-Unis
Directeur (1997-2001) : Donald H. Rumsfeld  

Extrait, 1st May 2009
« Roche pays a royalty of 20% on Tamiflu sales to the developer of the product, Gilead Sciences (GILD). The $250 million order from the U.S. HHA alone is expected to provide $50 million to Gilead in the third quarter 2009. Gilead has seen Tamiflu royalties vary significantly over the past few years -- at $415 million in 2007 on massive stockpiling in the U.S., Europe and Japan, but down to less than $200 million in 2008 on far less stockpiling and a relatively mild flu year. However, with the outbreak of the H1N1 virus, we expect Gilead to see Tamiflu royalties back up over $300 million in 2009, and potentially approaching $300 million again in 2010 if the pandemic continues.”
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/19735/Gilead+to+Benefit+from+Tamiflu+Orders


Extrait, November 2005
Roche, Gilead, dispute resolved; revised deal agreed uptdate (updates with background, details on new agreement, payments to Gilead) 
Zurich : Roche Holding AG and Gilead Sciences said that they have ended their dispute related to influenza drug Tamiflu, seen as the most effective treatment against so-called bird flu. Gilead owns the patent on Tamiflu and Roche bought the exclusive worldwide rights some 10 years ago. It accused the Swiss company of not doing enough to make and market the drug. 

Under a new agreement, Roche has agreed to waive the pre-existing contractual cost of goods adjustments from all future royalty calculations. Gilead's royalty on net sales of Tamiflu is unchanged and will range from 14-22 %, depending on the volume of sales in each year. 

Based on first nine months of 2005 and estimated pandemic sales for the fourth quarter, Gilead anticipates receiving a blended royalty for Roche's full year 2005 Tamiflu sales in the range of 18-19 %. As a result, Roche will also pay Gilead 62.5 millions US dollars in retroactive royalty adjustments, and Gilead will retain 18.2 millions that had been paid by Roche under protest in respect of disputed royalty calculations for sales in the period from 2001-2003. 

The two companies will also establish a joint committee to oversee the coordination of global manufacturing - including the consideration of third party licenses for manufacturing - and a joint committee to coordinate the commercialization of Tamiflu for seasonal sales in the most important markets. 

'The redefined agreement with Gilead is an important step. Together, Roche and Gilead will be able to focus their efforts even more on making sure that the needs for this medicine can be met, both for the treatment and prevention of seasonal influenza as well as for the worldwide stockpiling for pandemic plans,' Roche pharma head William Burns said.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2005/11/16/afx2339778.html

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Accroissement de la valeur Tamiflu
Extrait, 2005
Rumsfeld's growing stake in Tamiflu, Defense Secretary, ex-chairman of flu treatment rights holder, sees portfolio value growing
New York (Fortune) - The prospect of a bird flu outbreak may be panicking people around the globe, but it's proving to be very good news for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other politically connected investors in Gilead Sciences, the California biotech company that owns the rights to Tamiflu, the influenza remedy that's now the most-sought after drug in the world. 

Rumsfeld served as Gilead (Research)'s chairman from 1997 until he joined the Bush administration in 2001, and he still holds a Gilead stake valued at between $5 million and $25 million, according to federal financial disclosures filed by Rumsfeld. 

The forms don't reveal the exact number of shares Rumsfeld owns, but in the past six months fears of a pandemic and the ensuing scramble for Tamiflu have sent Gilead's stock from $35 to $47. That's made the Pentagon chief, already one of the wealthiest members of the Bush cabinet, at least $1 million richer. 

Rumsfeld isn't the only political heavyweight benefiting from demand for Tamiflu, which is manufactured and marketed by Swiss pharma giant Roche. (Gilead receives a royalty from Roche equaling about 10% of sales.) Former Secretary of State George Shultz, who is on Gilead's board, has sold more than $7 million worth of Gilead since the beginning of 2005. 

Another board member is the wife of former California Gov. Pete Wilson. 

"I don't know of any biotech company that's so politically well-connected," says analyst Andrew McDonald of Think Equity Partners in San Francisco. 

What's more, the federal government is emerging as one of the world's biggest customers for Tamiflu. In July, the Pentagon ordered $58 million worth of the treatment for U.S. troops around the world, and Congress is considering a multi-billion dollar purchase. Roche expects 2005 sales for Tamiflu to be about $1 billion, compared with $258 million in 2004. 

Rumsfeld recused himself from any decisions involving Gilead when he left Gilead and became Secretary of Defense in early 2001. And late last month, notes a senior Pentagon official, Rumsfeld went even further and had the Pentagon's general counsel issue additional instructions outlining what he could and could not be involved in if there were an avian flu pandemic and the Pentagon had to respond. 

As the flu issue heated up early this year, according to the Pentagon official, Rumsfeld considered unloading his entire Gilead stake and sought the advice of the Department of Justice, the SEC and the federal Office of Government Ethics. 

Those agencies didn't offer an opinion so Rumsfeld consulted a private securities lawyer, who advised him that it was safer to hold on to the stock and be quite public about his recusal rather than sell and run the risk of being accused of trading on insider information, something Rumsfeld doesn't believe he possesses. So he's keeping his shares for the time being.

Liens :http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/31/news/newsmakers/fortune_rumsfeld/

Liens :http://investors.gilead.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=69964&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1278916&highlight=

Gilead’s Market : http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=GILD

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